QuantCapBitcoin is on track for a third straight monthly gain, but higher yields, oil prices and two major November events could test its Q4 momentum.
Bitcoin is on track to shatter a major decade-long streak as September gains surge
Bitcoin is on track for a third straight monthly gain, but higher yields, oil prices and two major November events could test its Q4 momentum.
Bitcoin is up about 7% in September after gaining 25% in August. A positive September close for bitcoin would be the first to follow a positive August since 2013. A potential Anthropic IPO and the U.S. midterm elections could add volatility in Q4.
Bitcoin is up about 7% in September after gaining 25% in August. Since 2013, every previous positive August has been followed by a negative September. With two calendar days remaining, a positive close would break that pattern and give bitcoin three consecutive monthly gains, from July through September. It would also leave the third quarter up more than 40%, its first positive quarter since Q3 2025.
The fourth quarter has historically been bitcoin’s strongest, with CoinGlass data putting its average gain at roughly 77%. Bitcoin is trading at $84,000, but the macro backdrop is volatile. Bond yields are rising globally, the U.S. 10-year yield is above 5.2%, and the MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, is above 100, approaching year to date highs. Oil prices holding above $90 a barrel add to inflation concerns, while gold fell about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce.
Q4 brings two further tests for liquidity and risk appetite. Anthropic’s reported plans for a November IPO could draw investor attention and capital toward a major new equity listing, although the offering’s timing and size have not been finalized. The U.S. midterm elections in November could also add further volatility as investors assess the policy outlook.
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The Definitive Stablecoin Landscape Series: Asia Pacific
The Definitive Stablecoin Landscape Series: Asia Pacific
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
Why it matters:
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
Live updates: Bitcoin rebounds above $84,000 as ETFs draw in $30 million
Analysts see 10-year Treasury yield hitting 6%. Bitcoin bulls shouldn't panic
Anthropic plans to spend $518 billion on AI infrastructure. Pre-IPO perps barely blink.